NRL Predictions, Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 12.77 | 9.73 | 3.00 |
| Sea Eagles | 7.88 | 4.78 | 3.10 |
| Cowboys | 6.23 | 7.05 | -0.80 |
| Bulldogs | 5.30 | 7.33 | -2.00 |
| Rabbitohs | 5.30 | 5.23 | 0.10 |
| Titans | 1.65 | -1.85 | 3.50 |
| Knights | 0.29 | 0.44 | -0.10 |
| Broncos | 0.01 | -1.55 | 1.60 |
| Sharks | -0.95 | -1.78 | 0.80 |
| Dragons | -3.05 | -0.33 | -2.70 |
| Raiders | -3.83 | 2.03 | -5.90 |
| Panthers | -4.72 | -6.58 | 1.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.29 | -3.71 | -1.60 |
| Eels | -6.04 | -8.82 | 2.80 |
| Roosters | -6.75 | -5.68 | -1.10 |
| Warriors | -12.53 | -10.01 | -2.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Mar 14 | 16 – 20 | -7.54 | TRUE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Broncos | Mar 15 | 6 – 22 | 5.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Storm | Mar 16 | 10 – 32 | 2.95 | FALSE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Roosters | Mar 16 | 14 – 16 | -1.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Raiders | Mar 17 | 36 – 0 | 3.48 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | Mar 17 | 28 – 18 | 2.42 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Knights | Mar 17 | 32 – 0 | 7.12 | TRUE |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Sharks | Mar 18 | 14 – 12 | 12.93 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Bulldogs | Mar 21 | Storm | 12.00 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Eels | Mar 22 | Wests Tigers | 5.30 |
| 3 | Titans vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 23 | Sea Eagles | -1.70 |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Mar 23 | Broncos | -2.30 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Mar 24 | Sharks | 16.10 |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 24 | Rabbitohs | -5.50 |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Dragons | Mar 24 | Raiders | 3.70 |
| 8 | Knights vs. Cowboys | Mar 25 | Cowboys | -1.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »