NRL Predictions, Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 16, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 8.91 | 5.23 | 3.70 |
| Storm | 7.44 | 9.73 | -2.30 |
| Roosters | 3.91 | -5.68 | 9.60 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.80 | 4.78 | -1.00 |
| Bulldogs | 1.92 | 7.33 | -5.40 |
| Titans | 1.88 | -1.85 | 3.70 |
| Knights | 1.42 | 0.44 | 1.00 |
| Raiders | 1.02 | 2.03 | -1.00 |
| Panthers | -0.35 | -6.58 | 6.20 |
| Cowboys | -0.97 | 7.05 | -8.00 |
| Sharks | -1.04 | -1.78 | 0.70 |
| Warriors | -1.41 | -10.01 | 8.60 |
| Dragons | -2.70 | -0.33 | -2.40 |
| Broncos | -4.11 | -1.55 | -2.60 |
| Wests Tigers | -9.05 | -3.71 | -5.30 |
| Eels | -14.42 | -8.82 | -5.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 111 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.46%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | Jun 21 | 18 – 20 | 3.64 | FALSE |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Raiders | Jun 22 | 17 – 12 | -8.21 | FALSE |
| 3 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 23 | 10 – 30 | -18.53 | TRUE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Storm | Jun 24 | 18 – 12 | -2.83 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Raiders | Jun 28 | Rabbitohs | 12.40 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Storm | Jun 29 | Storm | -12.00 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Dragons | Jun 29 | Panthers | 6.90 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Titans | Jun 30 | Knights | 4.00 |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Jun 30 | Warriors | 7.20 |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Jun 30 | Cowboys | 4.60 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 01 | Roosters | 4.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »