Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester Tigers | 8.05 | 9.92 | -1.90 |
| Bath | 7.08 | 9.66 | -2.60 |
| Northampton Saints | 6.87 | 8.34 | -1.50 |
| Saracens | 6.22 | 8.04 | -1.80 |
| Gloucester | 3.69 | -3.46 | 7.20 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 2.76 | 7.58 | -4.80 |
| Bristol | 1.94 | -0.11 | 2.10 |
| Sale Sharks | -4.26 | -2.31 | -2.00 |
| Harlequins | -4.46 | -3.58 | -0.90 |
| Newcastle Red Bulls | -19.17 | -25.37 | 6.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 20 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. Bath | Oct 24 | 23 – 5 | 1.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 24 | 17 – 3 | -11.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 25 | 28 – 7 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 25 | 20 – 7 | 4.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Harlequins vs. Saracens | Oct 26 | 33 – 15 | -7.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 31 | Bristol | 0.90 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins | Nov 01 | Exeter Chiefs | 14.20 |
| 3 | Saracens vs. Newcastle Red Bulls | Nov 01 | Saracens | 32.40 |
| 4 | Bath vs. Sale Sharks | Nov 01 | Bath | 18.30 |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester | Nov 01 | Northampton Saints | 10.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »