July 10, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 20, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.38 9.03 0.40
Bulls 6.14 2.55 3.60
Brumbies 4.18 -1.06 5.20
Chiefs 3.07 6.98 -3.90
Stormers 2.55 3.34 -0.80
Sharks 2.29 4.57 -2.30
Waratahs 1.62 -4.10 5.70
Reds 0.17 0.46 -0.30
Cheetahs -1.69 -4.16 2.50
Blues -2.68 -3.02 0.30
Hurricanes -2.82 4.40 -7.20
Highlanders -5.87 -3.41 -2.50
Rebels -8.64 -10.64 2.00
Force -9.03 -9.73 0.70
Kings -13.47 -10.00 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jul 05 43 – 15 5.20 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jul 06 44 – 49 7.60 FALSE
3 Cheetahs vs. Blues Jul 06 34 – 13 1.90 TRUE
4 Kings vs. Stormers Jul 06 12 – 24 -13.80 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Sharks Jul 06 20 – 19 7.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 12 Crusaders 14.70
2 Rebels vs. Highlanders Jul 12 Rebels 1.20
3 Blues vs. Chiefs Jul 13 Chiefs -3.30
4 Waratahs vs. Reds Jul 13 Waratahs 4.00
5 Force vs. Brumbies Jul 13 Brumbies -10.70
6 Sharks vs. Kings Jul 13 Sharks 18.30
7 Stormers vs. Bulls Jul 13 Bulls -1.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »