April 2, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 7.29 4.57 2.70
Crusaders 5.32 8.80 -3.50
Chiefs 4.96 4.38 0.60
Bulls 3.90 4.87 -1.00
Brumbies 3.44 4.12 -0.70
Waratahs 3.40 1.67 1.70
Stormers 1.46 4.38 -2.90
Hurricanes 0.19 -1.44 1.60
Reds -0.18 0.58 -0.80
Blues -0.76 -1.92 1.20
Cheetahs -3.67 0.12 -3.80
Lions -4.03 -6.93 2.90
Force -4.07 -5.37 1.30
Highlanders -4.34 -4.48 0.10
Rebels -5.91 -6.36 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 28 26 – 29 9.10 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 28 32 – 24 -8.90 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 29 30 – 12 4.40 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Stormers Mar 29 22 – 17 1.90 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Chiefs Mar 29 34 – 34 3.40 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 29 32 – 10 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Apr 04 Highlanders 5.60
2 Brumbies vs. Blues Apr 04 Brumbies 8.20
3 Hurricanes vs. Bulls Apr 05 Hurricanes 0.30
4 Reds vs. Force Apr 05 Reds 6.40
5 Cheetahs vs. Chiefs Apr 05 Chiefs -4.60
6 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 05 Crusaders -5.40
7 Stormers vs. Waratahs Apr 05 Stormers 2.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »