July 30, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Waratahs 10.21 1.67 8.50
Crusaders 10.20 8.80 1.40
Sharks 3.91 4.57 -0.70
Hurricanes 2.89 -1.44 4.30
Bulls 2.88 4.87 -2.00
Chiefs 2.23 4.38 -2.10
Brumbies 2.20 4.12 -1.90
Stormers 1.68 4.38 -2.70
Blues 1.44 -1.92 3.40
Highlanders -2.54 -4.48 1.90
Lions -3.39 -6.93 3.50
Force -4.67 -5.37 0.70
Reds -4.98 0.58 -5.60
Cheetahs -5.55 0.12 -5.70
Rebels -9.53 -6.36 -3.20


Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Sharks Jul 26 38 – 6 7.40 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 26 26 – 8 9.40 TRUE


Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Aug 02 Waratahs 4.00



David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »


  • avatar
    David Jenkins

    Hi there,

    Will you be doing ITM Cup predictions this year?

    3 years ago

  • avatar
    Berend Mulder

    Thank you David for all the time you put in setting up new parameters for the predictions.It is appreciated.

    3 years ago