August 12, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.79 9.09 1.70
Cowboys 6.60 9.52 -2.90
Broncos 6.14 4.03 2.10
Rabbitohs 4.40 13.06 -8.70
Sea Eagles 4.25 2.68 1.60
Storm 3.62 4.36 -0.70
Bulldogs 2.08 0.21 1.90
Dragons 1.86 -1.74 3.60
Sharks 0.01 -10.76 10.80
Raiders -1.62 -7.09 5.50
Warriors -3.56 3.07 -6.60
Panthers -3.58 3.69 -7.30
Wests Tigers -6.05 -13.13 7.10
Eels -6.13 -7.19 1.10
Knights -7.45 -0.28 -7.20
Titans -10.02 -8.20 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 07 16 – 18 8.60 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Aug 07 28 – 8 0.10 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Dragons Aug 08 0 – 36 3.90 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 08 30 – 18 -6.10 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Panthers Aug 08 10 – 4 -0.50 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Titans Aug 09 36 – 14 15.70 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Roosters Aug 09 22 – 38 -15.10 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 10 18 – 20 9.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 13 Cowboys 5.20
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 14 Broncos 7.30
3 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 15 Wests Tigers 4.40
4 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 15 Panthers 4.00
5 Roosters vs. Eels Aug 15 Roosters 19.90
6 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 16 Sea Eagles -2.90
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 16 Bulldogs 15.10
8 Sharks vs. Storm Aug 17 Storm -0.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »