September 30, 2015

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 5.79 3.04 2.70
Western Province 5.32 4.93 0.40
Blue Bulls 1.91 0.17 1.70
Sharks 1.09 3.43 -2.30
Cheetahs -2.37 -1.75 -0.60
Pumas -6.95 -6.47 -0.50
Griquas -9.19 -7.81 -1.40
Kings -9.50 -9.44 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Sep 25 13 – 17 3.40 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Sep 26 31 – 73 -3.10 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 26 50 – 19 15.00 TRUE
4 Kings vs. Griquas Sep 26 40 – 37 3.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Oct 02 Lions 4.00
2 Blue Bulls vs. Kings Oct 02 Blue Bulls 14.90
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Oct 03 Cheetahs -1.10
4 Griquas vs. Sharks Oct 03 Sharks -6.80

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

See all posts by David Scott »