AFL Predictions for Week 10
Team Ratings for Week 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 26.35 | 26.20 | 0.20 |
| Sydney Swans | 23.53 | 0.56 | 23.00 |
| Geelong Cats | 21.39 | 26.75 | -5.40 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 21.34 | 22.83 | -1.50 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 13.42 | 6.56 | 6.90 |
| Western Bulldogs | 12.90 | 26.06 | -13.20 |
| Collingwood | 12.12 | 11.76 | 0.40 |
| Adelaide Crows | 8.82 | 15.32 | -6.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 7.98 | 10.24 | -2.30 |
| St Kilda Saints | 3.26 | -7.63 | 10.90 |
| GWS Giants | 2.07 | 9.54 | -7.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | 1.59 | 1.64 | -0.00 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -6.78 | -14.65 | 7.90 |
| Carlton Blues | -10.85 | -4.77 | -6.10 |
| North Melbourne | -12.27 | -21.71 | 9.40 |
| Essendon Bombers | -27.26 | -27.89 | 0.60 |
| Richmond Tigers | -40.08 | -29.44 | -10.60 |
| West Coast Eagles | -45.51 | -39.36 | -6.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 72 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 30 | 93 – 93 | -11.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 01 | 102 – 114 | 14.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 01 | 76 – 75 | 18.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Brisbane Lions | May 02 | 79 – 143 | -38.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond Tigers | May 02 | 88 – 99 | 8.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Geelong Cats vs. North Melbourne | May 02 | 135 – 86 | 43.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints | May 02 | 69 – 108 | -9.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sydney Swans vs. Melbourne Demons | May 03 | 131 – 114 | 35.90 | TRUE |
| 9 | Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants | May 03 | 83 – 63 | 16.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 10
Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 07 | Fremantle Dockers | 3.10 |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues | May 08 | Brisbane Lions | 48.20 |
| 3 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Western Bulldogs | May 08 | Western Bulldogs | -8.70 |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans | May 09 | Sydney Swans | -24.80 |
| 5 | GWS Giants vs. Essendon Bombers | May 09 | GWS Giants | 40.30 |
| 6 | Gold Coast Suns vs. St Kilda Saints | May 09 | Gold Coast Suns | 4.70 |
| 7 | Geelong Cats vs. Collingwood | May 09 | Geelong Cats | 9.30 |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles | May 10 | Melbourne Demons | 58.10 |
| 9 | Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows | May 10 | Adelaide Crows | -37.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »