October 7, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Taranaki 12.77 7.70 5.10
Canterbury 12.56 10.90 1.70
Tasman 8.40 12.86 -4.50
Auckland 8.30 5.14 3.20
Wellington 4.76 -4.62 9.40
Hawke’s Bay 4.14 -0.57 4.70
Counties Manukau 4.05 7.86 -3.80
Otago 1.46 -4.84 6.30
Waikato -6.41 -6.96 0.50
Bay of Plenty -6.46 -9.77 3.30
Manawatu -8.81 -1.52 -7.30
North Harbour -9.59 -10.54 0.90
Southland -10.77 -6.01 -4.80
Northland -18.37 -3.64 -14.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 22 – 22 3.70 FALSE
2 North Harbour vs. Otago Oct 01 32 – 39 -7.10 TRUE
3 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Oct 02 9 – 30 -3.30 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 03 25 – 41 3.30 FALSE
5 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Oct 03 10 – 44 -14.00 TRUE
6 Auckland vs. Northland Oct 03 64 – 21 28.00 TRUE
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 04 28 – 35 -11.40 TRUE
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Oct 04 13 – 31 -5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 07 Otago -15.80
2 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 08 Taranaki 8.40
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato Oct 09 Hawke’s Bay 14.60
4 Canterbury vs. Southland Oct 10 Canterbury 27.30
5 Wellington vs. Manawatu Oct 10 Wellington 17.60
6 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Oct 10 Auckland -0.30
7 North Harbour vs. Northland Oct 11 North Harbour 12.80
8 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 11 Otago 11.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »