April 27, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.46 9.84 -0.40
Chiefs 6.79 2.68 4.10
Hurricanes 6.42 7.26 -0.80
Highlanders 5.50 6.80 -1.30
Waratahs 3.51 4.88 -1.40
Brumbies 2.41 3.15 -0.70
Lions 1.95 -1.80 3.80
Stormers 1.88 -0.62 2.50
Bulls -0.32 -0.74 0.40
Sharks -0.56 -1.64 1.10
Blues -3.92 -5.51 1.60
Rebels -5.24 -6.33 1.10
Cheetahs -6.33 -9.27 2.90
Jaguares -9.20 -10.00 0.80
Reds -9.72 -9.81 0.10
Force -11.01 -8.43 -2.60
Sunwolves -16.26 -10.00 -6.30
Kings -18.59 -13.66 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Apr 22 14 – 15 11.60 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Apr 22 36 – 14 2.80 TRUE
3 Sunwolves vs. Jaguares Apr 23 36 – 28 -4.60 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 23 27 – 28 3.70 FALSE
5 Force vs. Waratahs Apr 23 13 – 49 -7.60 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Reds Apr 23 40 – 22 15.30 TRUE
7 Kings vs. Lions Apr 23 10 – 45 -14.60 TRUE
8 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Apr 24 14 – 40 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Sharks Apr 29 Chiefs 11.40
2 Force vs. Bulls Apr 29 Bulls -6.70
3 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 30 Highlanders 7.10
4 Blues vs. Rebels Apr 30 Blues 5.30
5 Reds vs. Cheetahs Apr 30 Reds 0.60
6 Lions vs. Hurricanes Apr 30 Hurricanes -0.50
7 Stormers vs. Waratahs Apr 30 Stormers 2.40
8 Jaguares vs. Kings Apr 30 Jaguares 13.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »