NRL Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.95 | 4.41 | 6.50 |
| Cowboys | 10.09 | 10.29 | -0.20 |
| Sharks | 7.34 | -1.06 | 8.40 |
| Raiders | 5.51 | -0.55 | 6.10 |
| Bulldogs | 2.41 | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| Broncos | 1.49 | 9.81 | -8.30 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.24 | 0.36 | -0.10 |
| Panthers | 0.06 | -3.06 | 3.10 |
| Titans | -0.34 | -8.39 | 8.00 |
| Roosters | -0.67 | 11.20 | -11.90 |
| Warriors | -1.67 | -7.47 | 5.80 |
| Eels | -2.21 | -4.62 | 2.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -2.28 | -4.06 | 1.80 |
| Dragons | -5.68 | -0.10 | -5.60 |
| Rabbitohs | -8.47 | -1.20 | -7.30 |
| Knights | -15.11 | -5.41 | -9.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 152 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Jul 28 | 32 – 16 | -1.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Dragons | Jul 29 | 13 – 10 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Panthers | Jul 30 | 20 – 17 | 2.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 30 | 8 – 23 | 6.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Storm | Jul 30 | 8 – 16 | 3.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Raiders | Jul 31 | 4 – 54 | -5.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Knights | Jul 31 | 36 – 16 | 18.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Sharks | Aug 01 | 18 – 18 | -5.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Broncos | Aug 04 | Broncos | -4.20 |
| 2 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 05 | Eels | 0.60 |
| 3 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | Aug 06 | Bulldogs | -14.50 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Aug 06 | Sharks | 4.80 |
| 5 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 06 | Storm | 22.40 |
| 6 | Titans vs. Warriors | Aug 07 | Titans | 5.30 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | Aug 07 | Cowboys | -9.40 |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Aug 08 | Panthers | 3.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »