September 20, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.91 12.85 4.10
Taranaki 7.73 8.25 -0.50
Auckland 5.86 11.34 -5.50
Tasman 4.56 8.71 -4.10
Counties Manukau 4.26 2.45 1.80
Wellington 3.26 4.32 -1.10
Otago 2.08 0.54 1.50
Waikato -0.75 -4.31 3.60
Bay of Plenty -3.87 -5.54 1.70
Hawke’s Bay -4.54 1.85 -6.40
Manawatu -4.73 -6.71 2.00
North Harbour -6.48 -8.15 1.70
Southland -12.81 -9.71 -3.10
Northland -14.98 -19.37 4.40


Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Sep 14 29 – 30 -1.00 TRUE
2 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 15 29 – 43 -2.10 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 16 33 – 23 26.50 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 16 24 – 10 10.50 TRUE
5 Otago vs. North Harbour Sep 17 24 – 13 12.90 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Sep 17 19 – 13 -22.80 FALSE
7 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 18 26 – 30 7.70 FALSE
8 Waikato vs. Taranaki Sep 18 20 – 20 -5.50 FALSE


Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 Bay of Plenty -4.90
2 Northland vs. Wellington Sep 22 Wellington -14.20
3 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Sep 23 Counties Manukau 9.00
4 Canterbury vs. Otago Sep 24 Canterbury 18.80
5 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Sep 24 Taranaki 16.50
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 24 Tasman -5.10
7 North Harbour vs. Southland Sep 25 North Harbour 10.30
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Sep 25 Auckland -5.70



David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »


  • avatar
    david pettit

    Thanks for posting these early. I know you strictly follow the numbers but some food for thought.

    Canterbury have a shield game next Wednesday so will surely rotate/just look to get the job done against Otago on Saturday.

    Tasman have only scored 10 tries, tied 2nd lowest only above Southland. They are also 3rd lowest in metres gained, 2nd lowest in defenders beaten, 3rd lowest tackle %, 3rd lowest scrum %, 3rd lowest ruck %.

    Conversely Hawkes Bay, despite their very poor results are tied 4th with 21 tries, 6th in metres gained, 5th in defenders beaten, lowest tackle %(their weakness obviously), 3rd highest scrum %, highest ruck success.

    I think this is a game they can win against Tasman.

    Thanks for the great content, as always!

    1 year ago

  • avatar
    sam smith

    How close do people think Wellington vs Northland will be? Or will the lions blow them away completely

    1 year ago

    • avatar
      Mike Hanley

      I should think the 14-point margin in the prediction above would be a minimum.
      I’ve found these predictions a pretty good basis for my weekly multi-bet, but there is usually one or two upsets each round. Every team can beat every other team on a given day.

      1 year ago

      • avatar
        sam smith

        Yeah im trying a multibet for thefirst tim on fri and saturdays matches. Heres hoping southland-bop was the only upset this round :)

        1 year ago

        • avatar
          Mike Hanley

          Well, it tripped me up.
          Next crack is same as these predictions except for Waikato over Counties (which should be close, so maybe I’ll skip that in the multi) and maybe Hawke’s Bay over Tasman (Tasman not nearly as strong as last season).

          1 year ago