October 11, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.04 12.85 3.20
Taranaki 9.13 8.25 0.90
Tasman 7.10 8.71 -1.60
Auckland 6.19 11.34 -5.10
Counties Manukau 4.38 2.45 1.90
Wellington -0.03 4.32 -4.40
Otago -0.08 0.54 -0.60
Waikato -1.19 -4.31 3.10
Manawatu -3.24 -6.71 3.50
Bay of Plenty -4.95 -5.54 0.60
North Harbour -5.24 -8.15 2.90
Hawke’s Bay -5.25 1.85 -7.10
Northland -12.25 -19.37 7.10
Southland -14.12 -9.71 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Wellington Oct 05 50 – 28 -5.90 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 06 31 – 49 7.70 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 07 47 – 18 24.50 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Northland Oct 08 39 – 31 0.80 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 08 14 – 16 -0.10 TRUE
6 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 46 – 22 4.60 TRUE
7 Wellington vs. Taranaki Oct 09 31 – 54 1.30 FALSE
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 09 38 – 33 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Tasman Oct 12 Tasman -8.30
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 13 Taranaki 6.90
3 Manawatu vs. Otago Oct 14 Manawatu 0.80
4 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Oct 15 Canterbury -7.70
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 15 Hawke’s Bay 3.70
6 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 15 Wellington 5.20
7 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 16 Tasman 25.20
8 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 16 North Harbour -3.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »