May 2, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.20 8.49 -0.30
Raiders 7.10 9.94 -2.80
Sharks 6.40 5.84 0.60
Broncos 5.44 4.36 1.10
Sea Eagles 2.39 -2.98 5.40
Panthers 0.50 6.08 -5.60
Eels 0.42 -0.81 1.20
Dragons 0.41 -7.74 8.10
Roosters 0.14 -1.17 1.30
Cowboys -0.23 6.90 -7.10
Titans -1.16 -0.98 -0.20
Bulldogs -1.24 -1.34 0.10
Warriors -4.47 -6.02 1.50
Wests Tigers -4.93 -3.89 -1.00
Rabbitohs -5.89 -1.82 -4.10
Knights -15.13 -16.94 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Apr 27 32 – 18 7.30 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 28 8 – 46 1.10 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Eels Apr 28 6 – 26 7.00 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Knights Apr 29 38 – 8 15.10 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Apr 29 16 – 10 -6.90 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Apr 29 16 – 22 -8.20 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Roosters Apr 30 14 – 13 -1.00 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Storm Apr 30 22 – 34 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys May 11 Bulldogs 2.50
2 Dragons vs. Sharks May 12 Sharks -2.50
3 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs May 12 Wests Tigers 4.50
4 Panthers vs. Warriors May 13 Panthers 9.00
5 Storm vs. Titans May 13 Storm 12.90
6 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 13 Sea Eagles 0.50
7 Knights vs. Raiders May 14 Raiders -18.70
8 Roosters vs. Eels May 14 Roosters 3.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »