Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 16.70 | 14.78 | 1.90 |
| Taranaki | 4.78 | 7.04 | -2.30 |
| Auckland | 4.47 | 6.11 | -1.60 |
| Counties Manukau | 4.36 | 5.70 | -1.30 |
| Tasman | 4.16 | 9.54 | -5.40 |
| Waikato | 1.50 | -0.26 | 1.80 |
| Wellington | 1.34 | -1.62 | 3.00 |
| Otago | 1.23 | -0.34 | 1.60 |
| North Harbour | -0.07 | -1.27 | 1.20 |
| Bay of Plenty | -2.72 | -3.98 | 1.30 |
| Manawatu | -2.87 | -3.59 | 0.70 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -8.55 | -5.85 | -2.70 |
| Northland | -9.75 | -12.37 | 2.60 |
| Southland | -17.20 | -16.50 | -0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southland vs. North Harbour | Aug 24 | 20 – 45 | -10.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 25 | 46 – 17 | 5.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Waikato vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 25 | 33 – 21 | -1.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Wellington vs. Taranaki | Aug 26 | 42 – 26 | -2.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Auckland vs. Northland | Aug 26 | 10 – 8 | 21.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Manawatu vs. Tasman | Aug 27 | 35 – 20 | -7.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Canterbury vs. Otago | Aug 27 | 30 – 24 | 22.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland vs. Waikato | Aug 30 | Auckland | 7.00 |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington | Aug 31 | Wellington | -0.10 |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury | Sep 01 | Canterbury | -21.20 |
| 4 | Otago vs. Manawatu | Sep 02 | Otago | 8.10 |
| 5 | Southland vs. Northland | Sep 02 | Northland | -3.50 |
| 6 | Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 02 | Taranaki | 4.40 |
| 7 | Waikato vs. Tasman | Sep 03 | Waikato | 1.30 |
| 8 | North Harbour vs. Auckland | Sep 03 | Auckland | -0.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »