August 29, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.70 14.78 1.90
Taranaki 4.78 7.04 -2.30
Auckland 4.47 6.11 -1.60
Counties Manukau 4.36 5.70 -1.30
Tasman 4.16 9.54 -5.40
Waikato 1.50 -0.26 1.80
Wellington 1.34 -1.62 3.00
Otago 1.23 -0.34 1.60
North Harbour -0.07 -1.27 1.20
Bay of Plenty -2.72 -3.98 1.30
Manawatu -2.87 -3.59 0.70
Hawke’s Bay -8.55 -5.85 -2.70
Northland -9.75 -12.37 2.60
Southland -17.20 -16.50 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 24 20 – 45 -10.50 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 25 46 – 17 5.60 TRUE
3 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 25 33 – 21 -1.30 FALSE
4 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 26 42 – 26 -2.80 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 26 10 – 8 21.80 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Tasman Aug 27 35 – 20 -7.00 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. Otago Aug 27 30 – 24 22.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 Auckland 7.00
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Aug 31 Wellington -0.10
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 01 Canterbury -21.20
4 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 02 Otago 8.10
5 Southland vs. Northland Sep 02 Northland -3.50
6 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 Taranaki 4.40
7 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 03 Waikato 1.30
8 North Harbour vs. Auckland Sep 03 Auckland -0.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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