Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 20.07 | 14.78 | 5.30 |
| Taranaki | 5.49 | 7.04 | -1.50 |
| North Harbour | 5.30 | -1.27 | 6.60 |
| Otago | 4.60 | -0.34 | 4.90 |
| Tasman | 4.24 | 9.54 | -5.30 |
| Counties Manukau | 3.29 | 5.70 | -2.40 |
| Wellington | 3.14 | -1.62 | 4.80 |
| Waikato | -0.79 | -0.26 | -0.50 |
| Auckland | -1.87 | 6.11 | -8.00 |
| Manawatu | -3.81 | -3.59 | -0.20 |
| Bay of Plenty | -3.83 | -3.98 | 0.10 |
| Northland | -4.06 | -12.37 | 8.30 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -13.28 | -5.85 | -7.40 |
| Southland | -21.09 | -16.50 | -4.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 30 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 06 | 40 – 27 | 17.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour | Sep 07 | 18 – 27 | 4.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Canterbury vs. Southland | Sep 08 | 78 – 20 | 42.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 08 | 17 – 20 | 5.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Auckland vs. Taranaki | Sep 09 | 38 – 49 | -1.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Northland vs. Waikato | Sep 09 | 37 – 7 | -5.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Tasman vs. Wellington | Sep 10 | 37 – 35 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago | Sep 10 | 21 – 64 | -7.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 13 | Canterbury | 20.80 |
| 2 | Northland vs. North Harbour | Sep 14 | North Harbour | -5.40 |
| 3 | Southland vs. Auckland | Sep 15 | Auckland | -15.20 |
| 4 | Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 15 | Taranaki | 13.30 |
| 5 | Waikato vs. Manawatu | Sep 16 | Waikato | 7.00 |
| 6 | Otago vs. Tasman | Sep 16 | Otago | 4.40 |
| 7 | Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 17 | Counties Manukau | 20.60 |
| 8 | Wellington vs. Canterbury | Sep 17 | Canterbury | -12.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »