September 19, 2017

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.43 8.49 5.90
Broncos 6.53 4.36 2.20
Raiders 4.07 9.94 -5.90
Cowboys 3.58 6.90 -3.30
Panthers 2.80 6.08 -3.30
Sharks 2.55 5.84 -3.30
Eels 1.60 -0.81 2.40
Roosters 1.34 -1.17 2.50
Dragons -0.94 -7.74 6.80
Sea Eagles -1.11 -2.98 1.90
Bulldogs -3.55 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -3.72 -3.89 0.20
Rabbitohs -3.84 -1.82 -2.00
Warriors -7.23 -6.02 -1.20
Titans -9.03 -0.98 -8.10
Knights -9.54 -16.94 7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 15 13 – 6 7.30 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Cowboys Sep 16 16 – 24 3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Sep 22 Storm 11.40
2 Roosters vs. Cowboys Sep 23 Roosters 1.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

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