September 19, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.04 14.78 4.30
Wellington 8.87 -1.62 10.50
Taranaki 6.27 7.04 -0.80
North Harbour 5.62 -1.27 6.90
Tasman 4.82 9.54 -4.70
Otago 4.03 -0.34 4.40
Counties Manukau -1.13 5.70 -6.80
Manawatu -2.01 -3.59 1.60
Auckland -2.34 6.11 -8.40
Waikato -2.59 -0.26 -2.30
Northland -4.38 -12.37 8.00
Bay of Plenty -4.61 -3.98 -0.60
Hawke’s Bay -13.56 -5.85 -7.70
Southland -20.62 -16.50 -4.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 13 78 – 5 20.80 TRUE
2 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 14 22 – 31 -5.40 TRUE
3 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 15 17 – 27 -15.20 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 15 29 – 7 13.30 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 16 10 – 23 7.00 FALSE
6 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 16 27 – 29 4.40 FALSE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 17 33 – 14 20.60 TRUE
8 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 17 60 – 14 -12.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 20 Bay of Plenty 20.00
2 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 21 Otago 10.40
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 22 Manawatu 6.40
4 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 23 Canterbury -9.40
5 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 23 Wellington -7.50
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 23 Taranaki -15.80
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Sep 24 Bay of Plenty 0.50
8 Tasman vs. Southland Sep 24 Tasman 29.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

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