September 26, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.36 14.78 4.60
Wellington 10.36 -1.62 12.00
Taranaki 7.63 7.04 0.60
North Harbour 5.30 -1.27 6.60
Tasman 4.84 9.54 -4.70
Otago 3.81 -0.34 4.20
Counties Manukau -0.79 5.70 -6.50
Manawatu -1.32 -3.59 2.30
Bay of Plenty -1.63 -3.98 2.30
Auckland -2.13 6.11 -8.20
Waikato -4.08 -0.26 -3.80
Northland -5.07 -12.37 7.30
Hawke’s Bay -14.93 -5.85 -9.10
Southland -23.97 -16.50 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 20 57 – 0 20.00 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 21 34 – 26 10.40 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 22 39 – 25 6.40 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 23 28 – 41 -9.40 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 23 10 – 34 -7.50 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 23 17 – 48 -15.80 TRUE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Sep 24 31 – 31 0.50 FALSE
8 Tasman vs. Southland Sep 24 50 – 17 29.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Otago Sep 27 Otago -4.90
2 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 28 Taranaki 6.80
3 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 29 North Harbour 24.20
4 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 30 Manawatu -18.60
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 30 Auckland 3.50
6 Canterbury vs. Waikato Sep 30 Canterbury 27.40
7 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 01 Wellington 10.50
8 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Oct 01 Counties Manukau 8.30

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Add a comment

First time commenting? Please use your real first name and surname and read the Comment Policy.