May 8, 2018

Aviva Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 13.09 7.47 5.60
Exeter Chiefs 10.74 7.99 2.70
Wasps 6.20 5.89 0.30
Leicester Tigers 4.61 4.64 -0.00
Bath Rugby 1.95 1.23 0.70
Sale Sharks 0.18 -1.73 1.90
Gloucester Rugby -1.74 0.21 -1.90
Northampton Saints -1.77 1.53 -3.30
Newcastle Falcons -1.80 -3.33 1.50
Harlequins -3.57 0.84 -4.40
Worcester Warriors -4.85 -4.37 -0.50
London Irish -7.61 -4.94 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. London Irish May 05 63 – 19 10.60 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 05 17 – 41 -10.30 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps May 05 22 – 39 -4.10 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors May 05 32 – 24 5.80 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 05 13 – 35 -0.00 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Gloucester Rugby May 05 62 – 12 15.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Saracens vs. Wasps May 19 Saracens 9.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons May 19 Exeter Chiefs 15.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »