NRL Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9.51 | 16.73 | -7.20 |
| Dragons | 4.78 | -0.45 | 5.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 4.39 | -3.90 | 8.30 |
| Panthers | 3.72 | 2.64 | 1.10 |
| Roosters | 3.46 | 0.13 | 3.30 |
| Raiders | 2.66 | 3.50 | -0.80 |
| Sharks | 2.46 | 2.20 | 0.30 |
| Broncos | 0.58 | 4.78 | -4.20 |
| Cowboys | -1.09 | 2.97 | -4.10 |
| Warriors | -1.31 | -6.97 | 5.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.46 | -3.63 | 0.20 |
| Bulldogs | -4.20 | -3.43 | -0.80 |
| Sea Eagles | -4.87 | -1.07 | -3.80 |
| Titans | -5.21 | -8.91 | 3.70 |
| Eels | -6.28 | 1.51 | -7.80 |
| Knights | -7.45 | -8.43 | 1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 116 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 14 | 24 – 42 | -6.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Warriors | Jun 15 | 16 – 23 | 6.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Panthers | Jun 15 | 32 – 6 | -1.10 | FALSE |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Jun 16 | 10 – 32 | 8.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 16 | 32 – 8 | 10.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Broncos | Jun 16 | 16 – 20 | 6.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Storm | Jun 17 | 10 – 28 | -13.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Raiders | Jun 17 | 12 – 48 | 2.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Eels | Jun 28 | Dragons | 14.10 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Jun 29 | Warriors | 0.70 |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Storm | Jun 29 | Storm | -3.10 |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 30 | Panthers | 11.60 |
| 5 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | Jun 30 | Bulldogs | -0.20 |
| 6 | Broncos vs. Raiders | Jun 30 | Broncos | 0.90 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Titans | Jul 01 | Wests Tigers | 4.70 |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | Jul 01 | Rabbitohs | 8.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »