NRL Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9.38 | 16.73 | -7.40 |
| Roosters | 6.41 | 0.13 | 6.30 |
| Sharks | 3.98 | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| Rabbitohs | 3.67 | -3.90 | 7.60 |
| Broncos | 1.45 | 4.78 | -3.30 |
| Panthers | 1.11 | 2.64 | -1.50 |
| Raiders | 0.95 | 3.50 | -2.60 |
| Eels | -1.31 | 1.51 | -2.80 |
| Warriors | -1.38 | -6.97 | 5.60 |
| Dragons | -1.72 | -0.45 | -1.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -2.06 | -3.63 | 1.60 |
| Cowboys | -2.44 | 2.97 | -5.40 |
| Bulldogs | -3.03 | -3.43 | 0.40 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.26 | -1.07 | -2.20 |
| Titans | -5.39 | -8.91 | 3.50 |
| Knights | -8.68 | -8.43 | -0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 168 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Aug 08 | 34 – 30 | -1.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Knights | Aug 10 | 20 – 4 | 11.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Aug 10 | 14 – 18 | 0.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Panthers | Aug 11 | 16 – 17 | -3.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | Aug 11 | 18 – 6 | 1.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Eels vs. Dragons | Aug 11 | 40 – 4 | -1.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 12 | 20 – 22 | 7.30 | FALSE |
| 8 | Storm vs. Sharks | Aug 12 | 14 – 17 | 10.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 16 | Broncos | 0.80 |
| 2 | Sea Eagles vs. Titans | Aug 17 | Sea Eagles | 5.10 |
| 3 | Storm vs. Eels | Aug 17 | Storm | 13.70 |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Knights | Aug 18 | Panthers | 12.80 |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Dragons | Aug 18 | Wests Tigers | 2.70 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Aug 18 | Sharks | 9.40 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Warriors | Aug 19 | Bulldogs | 2.90 |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Roosters | Aug 19 | Roosters | -2.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David, Can you do the stats for the Currie cup again ? and maybe the Pro 14 stats ?
6 years ago
Will do the Currie Cup. (I had forgotten about it starting at this time.) Pro 14 is more of a challenge: it can take up to a day’s work to set up a new competition—getting the data, putting it in the correct form, selecting parameters, modifying programs, … Will have a look though because it is a competition I thought I would try after the English Premiership and European Champions Cup. I also need to be able to web scrape weekly results to reduce the workload of entering data for multiple competitions. I can do that for Super Rugby and NRL so far.
6 years ago