Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington | 13.65 | 12.18 | 1.50 |
| Canterbury | 11.79 | 15.32 | -3.50 |
| Auckland | 6.02 | -0.50 | 6.50 |
| Tasman | 5.40 | 2.62 | 2.80 |
| North Harbour | 3.49 | 6.42 | -2.90 |
| Waikato | 2.92 | -3.24 | 6.20 |
| Bay of Plenty | 1.13 | 0.27 | 0.90 |
| Otago | 0.69 | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| Taranaki | 0.05 | 6.58 | -6.50 |
| Northland | -0.88 | -3.45 | 2.60 |
| Counties Manukau | -3.26 | 1.84 | -5.10 |
| Manawatu | -8.52 | -4.36 | -4.20 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -11.12 | -13.00 | 1.90 |
| Southland | -23.53 | -23.17 | -0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 38 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Harbour vs. Canterbury | Sep 12 | 21 – 31 | -5.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 13 | 42 – 2 | 13.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Northland vs. Manawatu | Sep 14 | 49 – 19 | 7.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Tasman vs. Taranaki | Sep 14 | 53 – 17 | 3.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Counties Manukau vs. Wellington | Sep 15 | 12 – 53 | -6.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Southland vs. Otago | Sep 15 | 24 – 43 | -20.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 16 | 32 – 20 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Canterbury vs. Auckland | Sep 16 | 29 – 34 | 12.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manawatu vs. Tasman | Sep 19 | Tasman | -9.90 |
| 2 | Northland vs. Southland | Sep 20 | Northland | 26.70 |
| 3 | Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato | Sep 21 | Bay of Plenty | 2.20 |
| 4 | Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour | Sep 22 | North Harbour | -10.60 |
| 5 | Otago vs. Canterbury | Sep 22 | Canterbury | -7.10 |
| 6 | Taranaki vs. Auckland | Sep 22 | Auckland | -2.00 |
| 7 | Tasman vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 23 | Tasman | 12.70 |
| 8 | Manawatu vs. Wellington | Sep 23 | Wellington | -18.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »