Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 11.95 | 11.19 | 0.80 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 11.68 | 11.13 | 0.50 |
| Wasps | 5.52 | 8.30 | -2.80 |
| Leicester Tigers | 3.92 | 6.26 | -2.30 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 3.67 | 1.23 | 2.40 |
| Northampton Saints | 3.38 | 3.42 | -0.00 |
| Harlequins | 2.34 | 2.05 | 0.30 |
| Bath Rugby | 1.76 | 3.11 | -1.40 |
| Sale Sharks | -0.61 | -0.81 | 0.20 |
| Worcester Warriors | -2.49 | -5.18 | 2.70 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -3.49 | -3.51 | 0.00 |
| Bristol | -6.04 | -5.60 | -0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers | Nov 16 | 36 – 13 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons | Nov 16 | 20 – 7 | 11.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bath Rugby vs. Worcester Warriors | Nov 17 | 30 – 13 | 8.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Wasps | Nov 17 | 36 – 17 | 1.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Sale Sharks | Nov 17 | 31 – 25 | 19.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Nov 18 | 29 – 31 | -13.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Rugby | Nov 23 | Newcastle Falcons | 0.30 |
| 2 | Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins | Nov 23 | Worcester Warriors | 0.70 |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Rugby | Nov 24 | Exeter Chiefs | 13.50 |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints | Nov 24 | Sale Sharks | 1.50 |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Bristol | Nov 24 | Wasps | 17.10 |
| 6 | Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens | Nov 25 | Saracens | -2.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »