November 20, 2018

Pro14 Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.52 9.80 1.70
Glasgow Warriors 9.36 8.55 0.80
Munster 8.92 8.08 0.80
Scarlets 4.65 6.39 -1.70
Connacht 1.39 0.01 1.40
Ulster 1.02 2.07 -1.00
Cardiff Blues 0.89 0.24 0.60
Ospreys 0.51 -0.86 1.40
Edinburgh -0.82 -0.64 -0.20
Cheetahs -2.58 -0.83 -1.70
Treviso -4.39 -5.19 0.80
Southern Kings -8.95 -7.91 -1.00
Dragons -9.77 -8.59 -1.20
Zebre -11.18 -10.57 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 03 20 – 29 -3.50 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Nov 03 31 – 21 -2.00 FALSE
3 Treviso vs. Ulster Nov 04 10 – 15 -0.10 TRUE
4 Connacht vs. Dragons Nov 04 33 – 12 14.60 TRUE
5 Southern Kings vs. Leinster Nov 04 31 – 38 -16.90 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Munster Nov 05 26 – 30 -7.60 TRUE
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Zebre Nov 05 37 – 0 14.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 24 Glasgow Warriors 13.00
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Nov 24 Leinster 15.50
3 Scarlets vs. Ulster Nov 24 Scarlets 8.10
4 Cheetahs vs. Treviso Nov 24 Cheetahs 6.30
5 Southern Kings vs. Connacht Nov 26 Connacht -5.80
6 Zebre vs. Munster Nov 26 Munster -15.60
7 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Nov 26 Edinburgh -4.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »