Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 11.49 | 11.13 | 0.40 |
| Saracens | 11.43 | 11.19 | 0.20 |
| Northampton Saints | 4.03 | 3.42 | 0.60 |
| Wasps | 3.28 | 8.30 | -5.00 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 3.05 | 1.23 | 1.80 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.67 | 6.26 | -3.60 |
| Harlequins | 2.17 | 2.05 | 0.10 |
| Bath Rugby | 2.00 | 3.11 | -1.10 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.47 | -0.81 | 2.30 |
| Worcester Warriors | -2.83 | -5.18 | 2.30 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -2.94 | -3.51 | 0.60 |
| Bristol | -4.23 | -5.60 | 1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 66 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs | Dec 28 | 31 – 28 | -3.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 29 | 15 – 30 | 9.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Wasps | Dec 29 | 20 – 13 | 3.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors | Dec 29 | 25 – 17 | 21.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bath Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 30 | 23 – 16 | 4.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 30 | 35 – 28 | 3.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sale Sharks vs. Saracens | Jan 04 | Saracens | -4.50 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol | Jan 05 | Exeter Chiefs | 21.20 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Rugby | Jan 05 | Leicester Tigers | 5.10 |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins | Jan 05 | Newcastle Falcons | 0.40 |
| 5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Rugby | Jan 05 | Worcester Warriors | 0.70 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Northampton Saints | Jan 06 | Wasps | 4.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
which is the positive and the negative out of these numbers /-4.50/21.20/5.10/0.40/0.70/4.80 can set on the right track i dont understand your system
5 years ago
There is only one negative: -4.50, so the home side is predicted in all but that game. The size of the difference is the forecast expected value of the margin and also gives a measure of the probability that the winning side will be as predicted.
5 years ago