January 29, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 12 Delayed Match

By

Team Ratings for Round 12 Delayed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.65 9.80 2.90
Munster 9.86 8.08 1.80
Glasgow Warriors 7.30 8.55 -1.20
Scarlets 3.31 6.39 -3.10
Connacht 2.70 0.01 2.70
Ospreys 1.30 -0.86 2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.57 0.24 0.30
Edinburgh 0.17 -0.64 0.80
Ulster -0.70 2.07 -2.80
Cheetahs -1.53 -0.83 -0.70
Treviso -2.79 -5.19 2.40
Dragons -8.03 -8.59 0.60
Southern Kings -10.30 -7.91 -2.40
Zebre -13.96 -10.57 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 97 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Jan 26 9 – 3 11.40 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Scarlets Jan 26 22 – 17 14.70 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Treviso Jan 26 17 – 17 7.80 FALSE
4 Cheetahs vs. Zebre Jan 27 61 – 28 15.60 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Munster Jan 27 7 – 8 -14.50 TRUE
6 Southern Kings vs. Edinburgh Jan 27 25 – 21 -6.90 FALSE
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Connacht Jan 27 8 – 7 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12 Delayed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 12 Delayed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Feb 03 Cheetahs 13.30

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Jacques van den Berg

    Hi just wane find out if you will be doing the predictions on the Super Rugby for 2019 starting 15 Feb.

    5 years ago