Super Rugby Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 16.41 | 17.67 | -1.30 |
| Hurricanes | 10.09 | 9.43 | 0.70 |
| Lions | 6.07 | 8.28 | -2.20 |
| Highlanders | 3.29 | 4.01 | -0.70 |
| Chiefs | 2.92 | 8.56 | -5.60 |
| Sharks | 1.66 | 0.45 | 1.20 |
| Waratahs | 1.27 | 2.00 | -0.70 |
| Brumbies | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Jaguares | -0.13 | -0.26 | 0.10 |
| Bulls | -0.28 | -3.79 | 3.50 |
| Stormers | -1.25 | -0.39 | -0.90 |
| Blues | -2.94 | -3.42 | 0.50 |
| Rebels | -5.52 | -7.26 | 1.70 |
| Reds | -6.85 | -8.19 | 1.30 |
| Sunwolves | -14.10 | -16.08 | 2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Brumbies | Mar 01 | 43 – 13 | 11.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Highlanders | Mar 01 | 24 – 19 | -6.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Sunwolves | Mar 02 | 15 – 30 | 25.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Reds vs. Crusaders | Mar 02 | 12 – 22 | -20.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Lions vs. Bulls | Mar 02 | 12 – 30 | 13.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Stormers | Mar 02 | 11 – 16 | 8.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Jaguares vs. Blues | Mar 02 | 23 – 19 | 7.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Highlanders | Mar 08 | Hurricanes | 10.30 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Brumbies | Mar 08 | Brumbies | -2.40 |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | Mar 09 | Crusaders | 17.00 |
| 4 | Blues vs. Sunwolves | Mar 09 | Blues | 15.20 |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Reds | Mar 09 | Waratahs | 11.60 |
| 6 | Lions vs. Jaguares | Mar 09 | Lions | 10.20 |
| 7 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Mar 09 | Bulls | 1.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi, I have enjoyed following your predictions (and using them for my work picks competition). Some close finishes this week with the winner only decided in the last minutes. I got all 7 this weekend as I picked the Rebels.
When teams are close on the ladder (within 2 places) I go with the home team.
And of course one should always pick the Crusaders to win.
5 years ago