March 5, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.33 11.19 0.10
Exeter Chiefs 10.31 11.13 -0.80
Northampton Saints 4.19 3.42 0.80
Wasps 3.55 8.30 -4.70
Harlequins 3.46 2.05 1.40
Gloucester Rugby 2.90 1.23 1.70
Leicester Tigers 2.46 6.26 -3.80
Bath Rugby 2.39 3.11 -0.70
Sale Sharks 0.95 -0.81 1.80
Worcester Warriors -2.97 -5.18 2.20
Bristol -3.21 -5.60 2.40
Newcastle Falcons -3.77 -3.51 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Harlequins Mar 02 29 – 31 5.20 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester Rugby Mar 02 28 – 24 -1.60 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Mar 02 19 – 14 4.30 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 02 17 – 6 3.90 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 02 14 – 20 -3.40 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Mar 02 36 – 17 11.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. Saracens Mar 09 Saracens -3.40
2 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Rugby Mar 09 Harlequins 6.10
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Mar 09 Northampton Saints 12.90
4 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 09 Sale Sharks 4.00
5 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 09 Wasps 12.80
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 09 Exeter Chiefs -7.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »