NRL Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 7.27 | 8.72 | -1.40 |
| Storm | 7.11 | 6.03 | 1.10 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.07 | 3.89 | 2.20 |
| Broncos | 3.38 | 2.63 | 0.80 |
| Sharks | 3.07 | 3.90 | -0.80 |
| Raiders | 2.30 | 1.81 | 0.50 |
| Cowboys | -0.23 | 0.15 | -0.40 |
| Warriors | -0.34 | -0.27 | -0.10 |
| Panthers | -0.49 | 0.93 | -1.40 |
| Dragons | -1.50 | 0.06 | -1.60 |
| Wests Tigers | -2.69 | -5.57 | 2.90 |
| Eels | -3.14 | -6.17 | 3.00 |
| Bulldogs | -4.42 | -0.61 | -3.80 |
| Titans | -4.92 | -3.36 | -1.60 |
| Sea Eagles | -6.18 | -5.61 | -0.60 |
| Knights | -7.28 | -8.51 | 1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 21 | 18 – 34 | -2.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Storm | Mar 22 | 10 – 22 | -0.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 22 | 29 – 10 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Titans | Mar 23 | 20 – 6 | 10.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Knights vs. Panthers | Mar 23 | 14 – 16 | -4.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Roosters | Mar 23 | 18 – 26 | -10.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | Mar 24 | 16 – 36 | 5.30 | FALSE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Warriors | Mar 24 | 34 – 6 | -2.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Dragons | Mar 28 | Broncos | 7.90 |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Knights | Mar 29 | Raiders | 12.60 |
| 3 | Eels vs. Roosters | Mar 29 | Roosters | -7.40 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Warriors | Mar 30 | Warriors | -1.30 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Mar 30 | Sharks | -0.30 |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Storm | Mar 30 | Storm | -4.60 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs | Mar 31 | Wests Tigers | 4.70 |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Titans | Mar 31 | Rabbitohs | 14.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Just wanted to say thanks for all your hard work. And I’m really enjoying the new league additions👌🏼
5 years ago
Thanks
5 years ago