Pro14 Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Munster | 10.34 | 8.08 | 2.30 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 10.17 | 8.55 | 1.60 |
| Leinster | 9.76 | 9.80 | -0.00 |
| Scarlets | 3.14 | 6.39 | -3.30 |
| Connacht | 3.13 | 0.01 | 3.10 |
| Ulster | 1.71 | 2.07 | -0.40 |
| Ospreys | 0.87 | -0.86 | 1.70 |
| Cardiff Blues | 0.84 | 0.24 | 0.60 |
| Edinburgh | 0.19 | -0.64 | 0.80 |
| Treviso | -0.69 | -5.19 | 4.50 |
| Cheetahs | -2.24 | -0.83 | -1.40 |
| Dragons | -10.04 | -8.59 | -1.40 |
| Southern Kings | -11.81 | -7.91 | -3.90 |
| Zebre | -14.83 | -10.57 | -4.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 140 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cheetahs vs. Dragons | Apr 13 | 38 – 13 | 11.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues | Apr 13 | 29 – 22 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Edinburgh vs. Ulster | Apr 13 | 7 – 29 | 4.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors | Apr 13 | 24 – 39 | 5.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Scarlets vs. Zebre | Apr 13 | 42 – 0 | 20.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Southern Kings vs. Ospreys | Apr 13 | 7 – 43 | -6.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Treviso vs. Munster | Apr 13 | 28 – 37 | -6.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys | Apr 27 | Cardiff Blues | 4.50 |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings | Apr 27 | Cheetahs | 14.10 |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Scarlets | Apr 27 | Scarlets | -8.70 |
| 4 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors | Apr 27 | Glasgow Warriors | -5.50 |
| 5 | Munster vs. Connacht | Apr 27 | Munster | 11.70 |
| 6 | Ulster vs. Leinster | Apr 27 | Leinster | -3.50 |
| 7 | Zebre vs. Treviso | Apr 27 | Treviso | -9.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »