Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 10.66 | 11.13 | -0.50 |
| Saracens | 9.27 | 11.19 | -1.90 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 4.81 | 1.23 | 3.60 |
| Northampton Saints | 4.09 | 3.42 | 0.70 |
| Wasps | 3.41 | 8.30 | -4.90 |
| Bath Rugby | 2.47 | 3.11 | -0.60 |
| Harlequins | 1.88 | 2.05 | -0.20 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.23 | -0.81 | 2.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | 0.10 | 6.26 | -6.20 |
| Worcester Warriors | -1.43 | -5.18 | 3.70 |
| Bristol | -2.13 | -5.60 | 3.50 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -2.78 | -3.51 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 114 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Saracens | Apr 13 | 23 – 21 | -6.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps | Apr 13 | 19 – 26 | 14.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby | Apr 13 | 27 – 23 | 8.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 13 | 19 – 20 | 4.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers | Apr 13 | 22 – 27 | 3.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 13 | 39 – 17 | 1.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins | Apr 27 | Exeter Chiefs | 14.30 |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol | Apr 27 | Leicester Tigers | 7.70 |
| 3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 27 | Northampton Saints | -1.40 |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Bath Rugby | Apr 27 | Sale Sharks | 4.30 |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Saracens | Apr 27 | Saracens | -0.40 |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Rugby | Apr 27 | Gloucester Rugby | -0.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »