July 2, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.88 6.03 5.80
Roosters 6.59 8.72 -2.10
Raiders 4.88 1.81 3.10
Rabbitohs 3.97 3.89 0.10
Knights 1.37 -8.51 9.90
Sharks 0.05 3.90 -3.90
Eels -1.38 -6.17 4.80
Sea Eagles -1.40 -5.61 4.20
Broncos -1.78 2.63 -4.40
Dragons -2.09 0.06 -2.10
Warriors -2.66 -0.27 -2.40
Cowboys -2.68 0.15 -2.80
Panthers -2.96 0.93 -3.90
Wests Tigers -4.10 -5.57 1.50
Titans -5.06 -3.36 -1.70
Bulldogs -6.62 -0.61 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 27 14 – 19 -5.10 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jun 28 22 – 14 2.90 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 28 12 – 14 -2.30 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 29 12 – 30 2.20 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Broncos Jun 29 26 – 12 4.90 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 29 22 – 16 -4.80 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 30 18 – 19 5.70 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 30 14 – 12 -4.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Storm Jul 04 Storm -11.00
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 05 Roosters -7.70
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jul 06 Knights 8.50
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jul 07 Sharks 4.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »