July 2, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.19 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 8.80 9.43 -0.60
Jaguares 7.36 -0.26 7.60
Chiefs 5.91 8.56 -2.60
Highlanders 4.28 4.01 0.30
Brumbies 2.03 0.00 2.00
Bulls 1.28 -3.79 5.10
Lions 0.40 8.28 -7.90
Blues -0.05 -3.42 3.40
Stormers -0.71 -0.39 -0.30
Sharks -0.85 0.45 -1.30
Waratahs -2.48 2.00 -4.50
Reds -5.86 -8.19 2.30
Rebels -7.82 -7.26 -0.60
Sunwolves -18.47 -16.08 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 125 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Jun 29 39 – 7 6.20 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jun 29 30 – 26 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Jaguares Jul 06 Crusaders 13.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »