NRL Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 13.26 | 6.03 | 7.20 |
| Roosters | 10.11 | 8.72 | 1.40 |
| Raiders | 8.11 | 1.81 | 6.30 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.31 | 3.89 | -1.60 |
| Sea Eagles | 1.47 | -5.61 | 7.10 |
| Sharks | -0.21 | 3.90 | -4.10 |
| Eels | -0.81 | -6.17 | 5.40 |
| Broncos | -0.94 | 2.63 | -3.60 |
| Panthers | -1.49 | 0.93 | -2.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -2.61 | -5.57 | 3.00 |
| Warriors | -2.95 | -0.27 | -2.70 |
| Dragons | -3.95 | 0.06 | -4.00 |
| Cowboys | -4.05 | 0.15 | -4.20 |
| Knights | -4.28 | -8.51 | 4.20 |
| Bulldogs | -5.47 | -0.61 | -4.90 |
| Titans | -10.47 | -3.36 | -7.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 160 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Aug 08 | 14 – 18 | 0.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 09 | 24 – 16 | -1.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Aug 09 | 26 – 20 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Titans | Aug 10 | 40 – 28 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Eels vs. Knights | Aug 10 | 20 – 14 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 10 | 18 – 16 | -0.20 | FALSE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Roosters | Aug 11 | 18 – 22 | 1.80 | FALSE |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Aug 11 | 16 – 26 | -7.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 15 | Sea Eagles | 7.10 |
| 2 | Titans vs. Eels | Aug 16 | Eels | -6.70 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Panthers | Aug 16 | Broncos | 3.50 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Cowboys | Aug 17 | Knights | 2.80 |
| 5 | Storm vs. Raiders | Aug 17 | Storm | 8.20 |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Aug 17 | Rabbitohs | 10.80 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Warriors | Aug 18 | Roosters | 17.60 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Dragons | Aug 18 | Sharks | 6.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »