Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final
Team Ratings for the Rugby World Cup Final
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 27.01 | 27.60 | -0.60 |
| England | 23.20 | 19.78 | 3.40 |
| South Africa | 19.87 | 18.51 | 1.40 |
| Ireland | 10.56 | 12.12 | -1.60 |
| Wales | 10.32 | 12.72 | -2.40 |
| Australia | 6.60 | 8.70 | -2.10 |
| Scotland | 6.14 | 5.44 | 0.70 |
| France | 5.26 | 7.11 | -1.80 |
| Argentina | 3.32 | 4.15 | -0.80 |
| Japan | -5.52 | -7.67 | 2.20 |
| Fiji | -5.54 | -5.27 | -0.30 |
| Italy | -9.53 | -8.57 | -1.00 |
| Samoa | -15.53 | -11.89 | -3.60 |
| Tonga | -15.83 | -20.46 | 4.60 |
| Georgia | -18.08 | -17.43 | -0.70 |
| USA | -18.64 | -16.38 | -2.30 |
| Uruguay | -30.89 | -35.67 | 4.80 |
| Canada | -34.63 | -32.45 | -2.20 |
| Russia | -36.32 | -36.78 | 0.50 |
| Namibia | -39.99 | -41.80 | 1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 43 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 90.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England vs. New Zealand | Oct 26 | 19 – 7 | -7.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Wales vs. South Africa | Oct 27 | 16 – 19 | -11.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final
Here are the predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand vs. Wales | Nov 01 | New Zealand | 16.70 |
| 2 | England vs. South Africa | Nov 02 | England | 3.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David, woah what a blinder the NZ vs ENG game was. Not even mathematical equation could have foreseen that result. I would have thought the stats would produce a higher winning margin for the ENG vs SA due to ENG beating a higher rated opponent and with a greater margin whereas SA beat a lesser opponent with a smaller margin? Best regards Chris.
5 years ago
ABs were absolutely smashed from the start. Pretty much nothing clicked and scoreline could have been much worse. Change of 1.70 points in England and AB ratings which is actually quite a lot. In the other game SA ranking actually went down (and Wales up) because SA was predicted to win by 11 and only managed 3.
Probably I will get claims that England should be ranked higher than ABs, but that is not how these rankings work. That is what happens with the official rankings but they wander all over the show from one week to the next.
5 years ago