November 12, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.50 9.34 -0.80
Exeter Chiefs 6.09 7.99 -1.90
Northampton Saints 1.92 0.25 1.70
Sale Sharks 1.42 0.17 1.20
Gloucester 0.92 0.58 0.30
Bath 0.30 1.10 -0.80
Bristol -0.32 -2.77 2.50
Wasps -0.98 0.31 -1.30
Harlequins -1.56 -0.81 -0.80
Worcester Warriors -2.26 -2.69 0.40
Leicester Tigers -3.48 -1.76 -1.70
London Irish -4.33 -5.51 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Nov 09 28 – 18 6.30 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Nov 10 22 – 13 2.00 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Saracens Nov 10 12 – 21 -2.30 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 10 14 – 19 6.50 FALSE
5 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 11 36 – 11 1.30 TRUE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Nov 11 17 – 20 12.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Saracens Nov 30 Saracens -3.70
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Dec 01 Exeter Chiefs 11.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 01 Northampton Saints 9.90
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Dec 01 Worcester Warriors 0.80
5 Bristol vs. London Irish Dec 02 Bristol 8.50
6 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 02 Harlequins 2.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »