Pro14 Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
I missed posting predictions for this round thinking that there was a longer break between games. Because I use an algorithm and code and no subjective analysis, these predictions are exactly what I would have posted and I am posting them now for completeness.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 16.11 | 12.20 | 3.90 |
| Munster | 7.81 | 10.73 | -2.90 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 6.69 | 9.66 | -3.00 |
| Ulster | 5.09 | 1.89 | 3.20 |
| Edinburgh | 4.82 | 1.24 | 3.60 |
| Scarlets | 3.47 | 3.91 | -0.40 |
| Connacht | 0.45 | 2.68 | -2.20 |
| Cardiff Blues | 0.41 | 0.54 | -0.10 |
| Cheetahs | -0.03 | -3.38 | 3.30 |
| Ospreys | -3.65 | 2.80 | -6.50 |
| Treviso | -4.04 | -1.33 | -2.70 |
| Dragons | -8.38 | -9.31 | 0.90 |
| Southern Kings | -14.24 | -14.70 | 0.50 |
| Zebre | -14.51 | -16.93 | 2.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings | 45 – 0 | 17.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Zebre | Glasgow Warriors | 27.70 | |
| 2 | Munster vs. Southern Kings | Munster | 28.50 | |
| 3 | Leinster vs. Cheetahs | Leinster | 22.60 | |
| 4 | Scarlets vs. Edinburgh | Scarlets | 5.10 | |
| 5 | Ospreys vs. Ulster | Ulster | -2.20 | |
| 6 | Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues | Connacht | 6.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »