March 19, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 2

Obviously this week is different in a number of ways. Empty stadiums, Warriors with a depleted squad. My predictions take no account of these changed circumstances.

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.03 12.73 0.30
Roosters 11.43 12.25 -0.80
Raiders 6.77 7.06 -0.30
Rabbitohs 2.94 2.85 0.10
Eels 2.67 2.80 -0.10
Sharks 1.71 1.81 -0.10
Sea Eagles 0.75 1.05 -0.30
Panthers 0.68 -0.13 0.80
Wests Tigers 0.20 -0.18 0.40
Bulldogs -2.39 -2.52 0.10
Cowboys -4.54 -3.95 -0.60
Broncos -4.94 -5.53 0.60
Knights -5.11 -5.92 0.80
Warriors -5.98 -5.17 -0.80
Dragons -6.52 -6.14 -0.40
Titans -12.70 -12.99 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 12 8 – 2 7.30 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 13 24 – 6 22.00 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Broncos Mar 13 21 – 28 3.60 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Mar 14 20 – 0 3.70 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Mar 14 22 – 18 3.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 20 – 14 -10.40 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Mar 15 4 – 18 -9.70 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Mar 15 14 – 24 -4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Mar 19 Bulldogs 4.20
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 20 Panthers -5.20
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 20 Rabbitohs -5.90
4 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 21 Raiders -8.20
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 21 Roosters 12.70
6 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 21 Storm -9.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 22 Wests Tigers 7.30
8 Titans vs. Eels Mar 22 Eels -13.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »