August 25, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.59 7.99 2.60
Saracens 7.10 9.34 -2.20
Sale Sharks 5.19 0.17 5.00
Wasps 2.39 0.31 2.10
Bristol 0.78 -2.77 3.60
Gloucester 0.13 0.58 -0.50
Bath 0.09 1.10 -1.00
Northampton Saints -0.26 0.25 -0.50
Harlequins -1.55 -0.81 -0.70
Leicester Tigers -4.29 -1.76 -2.50
Worcester Warriors -6.64 -2.69 -4.00
London Irish -7.32 -5.51 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 22 22 – 32 0.30 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Aug 22 24 – 33 5.40 FALSE
3 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 22 32 – 17 13.20 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Aug 22 38 – 24 13.00 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Aug 22 3 – 27 -0.20 TRUE
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Aug 23 16 – 38 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Aug 26 Wasps 1.70
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 26 Exeter Chiefs -5.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Aug 27 Leicester Tigers 7.50
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Aug 27 Saracens 11.50
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Aug 27 Harlequins -0.60
6 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Aug 27 Northampton Saints 4.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »