September 1, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.57 12.20 4.40
Munster 11.14 10.73 0.40
Glasgow Warriors 6.87 9.66 -2.80
Edinburgh 4.28 1.24 3.00
Ulster 3.66 1.89 1.80
Scarlets 3.16 3.91 -0.70
Connacht 0.34 2.68 -2.30
Cardiff Blues -0.36 0.54 -0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -3.38 2.80 -6.20
Treviso -4.11 -1.33 -2.80
Dragons -8.03 -9.31 1.30
Zebre -14.76 -16.93 2.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Aug 29 15 – 3 6.60 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Scarlets Aug 30 20 – 41 -4.90 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Aug 30 10 – 28 -6.90 TRUE
4 Munster vs. Connacht Aug 31 49 – 12 14.20 TRUE
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Aug 31 29 – 20 7.80 TRUE
6 Zebre vs. Treviso Aug 31 9 – 16 -5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Munster Sep 05 Leinster 10.40
2 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Sep 06 Edinburgh 7.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »