NRL Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 14.42 | 12.73 | 1.70 |
| Roosters | 12.14 | 12.25 | -0.10 |
| Panthers | 6.47 | -0.13 | 6.60 |
| Raiders | 5.81 | 7.06 | -1.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 5.72 | 2.85 | 2.90 |
| Eels | 3.48 | 2.80 | 0.70 |
| Sharks | -0.23 | 1.81 | -2.00 |
| Knights | -0.43 | -5.92 | 5.50 |
| Warriors | -2.68 | -5.17 | 2.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -2.95 | -0.18 | -2.80 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.40 | 1.05 | -4.40 |
| Dragons | -4.28 | -6.14 | 1.90 |
| Bulldogs | -6.86 | -2.52 | -4.30 |
| Cowboys | -7.01 | -3.95 | -3.10 |
| Titans | -10.39 | -12.99 | 2.60 |
| Broncos | -11.80 | -5.53 | -6.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 136 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Panthers | Sep 03 | 12 – 25 | -16.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Sharks | Sep 04 | 38 – 10 | -0.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Sep 04 | 16 – 22 | -6.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Sep 05 | 14 – 18 | 6.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers | Sep 05 | 32 – 34 | 2.10 | FALSE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Roosters | Sep 05 | 6 – 14 | -3.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Eels vs. Warriors | Sep 06 | 24 – 18 | 11.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Cowboys vs. Dragons | Sep 06 | 23 – 22 | -1.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | Sep 10 | Rabbitohs | -6.70 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles | Sep 11 | Sea Eagles | -1.50 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Eels | Sep 11 | Panthers | 5.00 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Raiders | Sep 12 | Raiders | -8.10 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Broncos | Sep 12 | Titans | 3.40 |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Knights | Sep 12 | Roosters | 14.60 |
| 7 | Storm vs. Cowboys | Sep 13 | Storm | 21.40 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Sep 13 | Sharks | 6.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »