September 8, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.52 7.99 3.50
Saracens 7.27 9.34 -2.10
Sale Sharks 7.11 0.17 6.90
Wasps 3.29 0.31 3.00
Bath 1.47 1.10 0.40
Bristol 0.82 -2.77 3.60
Gloucester 0.28 0.58 -0.30
Northampton Saints -1.41 0.25 -1.70
Harlequins -2.67 -0.81 -1.90
Leicester Tigers -4.98 -1.76 -3.20
London Irish -8.14 -5.51 -2.60
Worcester Warriors -8.35 -2.69 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Sep 05 13 – 36 -2.60 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 05 19 – 22 -9.20 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Wasps Sep 05 18 – 28 10.60 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Sep 05 27 – 41 2.10 FALSE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Sep 06 31 – 40 -7.30 TRUE
6 Gloucester vs. London Irish Sep 06 36 – 23 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Sep 09 Bristol 6.70
2 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 10 Wasps 12.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Sep 10 Exeter Chiefs 15.70
4 London Irish vs. Harlequins Sep 10 Harlequins -1.00
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Sep 10 Sale Sharks 4.30
6 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 10 Bath 14.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »