September 11, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.30 7.99 3.30
Sale Sharks 7.32 0.17 7.10
Saracens 7.06 9.34 -2.30
Wasps 4.90 0.31 4.60
Bristol 2.28 -2.77 5.10
Bath 2.06 1.10 1.00
Gloucester 0.50 0.58 -0.10
Harlequins -1.56 -0.81 -0.80
Northampton Saints -2.86 0.25 -3.10
Leicester Tigers -6.59 -1.76 -4.80
Worcester Warriors -8.94 -2.69 -6.30
London Irish -9.24 -5.51 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Sep 09 47 – 10 6.70 TRUE
2 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 10 54 – 7 12.80 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Sep 10 35 – 22 15.70 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Harlequins Sep 10 15 – 38 -1.00 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Sep 10 24 – 17 4.30 TRUE
6 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 10 40 – 15 14.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 13 Wasps 7.10
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Sep 13 Leicester Tigers 0.80
3 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 14 London Irish 4.20
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Sep 14 Sale Sharks 9.80
5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 14 Saracens 0.30
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Sep 15 Gloucester 6.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »