November 17, 2020

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.99 15.13 -3.10
Auckland 8.58 6.75 1.80
Canterbury 6.78 8.40 -1.60
Bay of Plenty 5.97 8.21 -2.20
Wellington 5.73 6.47 -0.70
North Harbour 5.23 2.87 2.40
Hawke’s Bay 2.56 0.91 1.70
Waikato 1.63 1.31 0.30
Otago -2.13 -4.03 1.90
Taranaki -3.06 -4.42 1.40
Northland -6.67 -8.71 2.00
Counties Manukau -10.75 -8.18 -2.60
Southland -10.78 -14.04 3.30
Manawatu -14.98 -10.57 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Nov 13 25 – 17 2.10 TRUE
2 Northland vs. Waikato Nov 14 28 – 17 -7.70 FALSE
3 Otago vs. Tasman Nov 14 20 – 26 -12.00 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Manawatu Nov 14 31 – 5 23.10 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Nov 15 37 – 33 3.70 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Nov 15 33 – 34 -3.00 TRUE
7 Canterbury vs. Auckland Nov 15 34 – 33 1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Northland Nov 20 Otago 7.50
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Nov 21 Auckland 10.00
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Nov 21 Hawke’s Bay 8.60
4 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 21 Tasman 9.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »