October 16, 2018

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.65 15.32 -1.70
Wellington 13.30 12.18 1.10
Tasman 9.50 2.62 6.90
Auckland 9.27 -0.50 9.80
Waikato 6.49 -3.24 9.70
North Harbour 5.56 6.42 -0.90
Otago 0.34 0.33 0.00
Counties Manukau -2.03 1.84 -3.90
Taranaki -4.85 6.58 -11.40
Bay of Plenty -4.95 0.27 -5.20
Northland -6.02 -3.45 -2.60
Hawke’s Bay -7.21 -13.00 5.80
Manawatu -11.83 -4.36 -7.50
Southland -23.39 -23.17 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Auckland Oct 10 8 – 56 -23.80 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 11 29 – 0 18.90 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Wellington Oct 12 10 – 34 -12.00 TRUE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Oct 13 38 – 35 5.50 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Otago Oct 13 19 – 23 13.30 FALSE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Oct 13 14 – 19 -13.10 TRUE
7 Auckland vs. North Harbour Oct 14 45 – 29 3.70 TRUE
8 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 14 38 – 26 14.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Northland Oct 19 Waikato 16.50
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 19 Canterbury -0.20
3 Auckland vs. Wellington Oct 20 Wellington -0.00
4 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 20 Otago 11.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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