November 17, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.93 16.52 2.40
Munster 9.02 9.90 -0.90
Ulster 7.30 4.58 2.70
Edinburgh 4.77 5.49 -0.70
Glasgow Warriors 3.90 5.66 -1.80
Scarlets 1.43 1.98 -0.60
Cardiff Blues 0.55 0.08 0.50
Connacht 0.54 0.70 -0.20
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -2.72 -2.82 0.10
Treviso -4.48 -3.50 -1.00
Dragons -8.69 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.18 -15.37 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Scarlets Nov 15 14 – 20 6.70 FALSE
2 Munster vs. Ospreys Nov 16 38 – 22 18.70 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Ulster Nov 17 14 – 57 -14.10 TRUE
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Treviso Nov 17 22 – 5 10.30 TRUE
5 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Nov 17 50 – 10 19.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Connacht Nov 23 Connacht -9.20
2 Ospreys vs. Treviso Nov 23 Ospreys 8.30
3 Leinster vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 23 Leinster 24.90
4 Ulster vs. Scarlets Nov 23 Ulster 12.40
5 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Nov 24 Edinburgh -7.00
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Munster Nov 24 Glasgow Warriors 1.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »