Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games
Team Ratings for Postponed Games
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon Rugby | 5.91 | 5.61 | 0.30 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.90 | 6.21 | -0.30 |
| Stade Toulousain | 4.92 | 4.80 | 0.10 |
| La Rochelle | 4.47 | 2.32 | 2.20 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.24 | 3.22 | 1.00 |
| RC Toulonnais | 4.19 | 3.56 | 0.60 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 3.17 | 2.83 | 0.30 |
| Montpellier | 2.12 | 2.30 | -0.20 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.81 | -3.22 | 2.40 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.77 | -0.47 | -1.30 |
| Section Paloise | -3.54 | -4.48 | 0.90 |
| Brive | -4.32 | -3.26 | -1.10 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -4.87 | -4.13 | -0.70 |
| SU Agen | -9.06 | -4.72 | -4.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 53 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Montpellier | Nov 14 | 29 – 20 | -2.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Brive vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Nov 14 | 19 – 23 | -4.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Nov 14 | 29 – 30 | 0.80 | FALSE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 14 | 16 – 22 | -2.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. La Rochelle | Nov 14 | 35 – 13 | -1.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | SU Agen vs. RC Toulonnais | Nov 14 | 9 – 38 | -6.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Postponed Games
Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Nov 23 | La Rochelle | 0.80 |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 21 | Montpellier | 7.40 |
| 3 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. RC Toulonnais | Nov 22 | RC Toulonnais | -2.60 |
| 4 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby | Nov 22 | Clermont Auvergne | 3.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »