Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 1.84 | -1.45 | 3.30 |
| Sharks | 1.16 | 4.01 | -2.80 |
| Stormers | 0.80 | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| Lions | -3.00 | -4.82 | 1.80 |
| Cheetahs | -8.14 | -10.00 | 1.90 |
| Pumas | -11.27 | -10.00 | -1.30 |
| Griquas | -12.65 | -10.00 | -2.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Griquas vs. Sharks | Nov 13 | 33 – 34 | -10.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Stormers vs. Cheetahs | Nov 14 | 30 – 13 | 12.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls vs. Pumas | Nov 20 | Bulls | 17.60 |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Griquas | Nov 21 | Cheetahs | 9.00 |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Stormers | Nov 21 | Sharks | 4.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi,
What’s the winning team predictions and Winning Margin prediction for Autumn Nation’s Cup.
1) England vs Ireland
2) Wales vs Georgia
3) Scotland vs France
#davidscottbiggestfan
3 years ago
Sorry, but I don’t forecast international games, with the exception of the World Cup. There is quite a bit of work getting the data right, and staying abreast of what games are being played around the world so that I can produce forecasts using all relevant data, but prior to the various games being played. It is much easier dealing with games played on a weekly schedule. For the World Cup I have past data on all games (pretty much) for a number of World Cups and in between. For an upcoming World Cup I do a bit of web scraping to get details of all games between the past and the upcoming World Cup. I still have to do a lot of checking of ground locations when dealing with lower tier countries (Canada, Russia, etc) so that I can assign home ground advantage.
Setting up a new competition from scratch, can take the best part of a day’s work. (Top14 for example recently). For competitions where I have past data, I have programs to obtain fixture details and weekly results which don’t require any manual data entry other than specifying a year and or a round.
3 years ago